Saturday, August 9, 2008

Laying Bets on the Oil Futures Market

Been thinking about a conversation that I had with a civilized lurker. (PS..Lurker, if you are still there, shoot me an e-mail, while I have driven the craven from my temple, my actions have unfortunately banished you as well. If you send e-mail, I will be happy to get any comments that you wish to make on the page).

The bet began this way:

We shall see what happens, but if oil doesn't drop below $100/barrel by this time next year, even in our newly devalued dollars, I'll send you a silver eagle!

Now, I realized that I bet too quickly. What I should have bet is that the price would be >$100.00 this time next year.

Anyway, Lurker and I placed a bet on the future price of oil. A silver eagle hangs in the balance. He says that it will be<$100 before next July. I said no.

This isn't to say that I don't think that the price of oil will be dropping in the near future. Remember folks, we have and election coming and the scummies in congress are doing everything to claw back the price of oil so that they can keep their do-nothing jobs. I think that this current government (and other administrations, but to a much lesser extent) is doing every manipulation that I can to keep the mess together so that their corporate buddies can finish their looting.

So, I am betting on ~$100 a barrel oil by November, then the price will go back up fairly quickly and settle into a slow upward crawl. The amount of oil that we will have available is dropping, short term manipulations cannot beat supply and demand. Prices will be going up.

I might have to pay off the eagle, but we will see. But I probably should have been more precise about the wording of the bet. I just hope that it stops above $100.00.

Eagles are just too pretty to lose.

No comments: