Saturday, July 4, 2009

1918 Influenza Pandemic | CDC EID


OK Here is the reading material.

1918 Influenza Pandemic | CDC EID

In a nutshell, you are looking at infection rates of 33%. Of those infected, you are looking at a mortality rate of around 10%. The numbers don’t quite add up for me, but they claim a case fatality rate of 2.5%, but it appears from the numbers that 500 million divided by 50 million is a case fatality rate of 10%. But maybe I am not looking at things correctly.

It appears to me that in a pandemic such as this, if you have a one in three chance of catching the disease, and a one chance in ten of dying if you get it, you are looking at a 3.3% death rate, or approximately a one chance in 30 of dying.

So, lets assume that we get a bad boy like this going around again. We have a population of 300,000,000. A 3.3% hit on that population would be around 10,000,000. Bad news that.

Another thing to consider before getting too cocky is the way that the pandemic waves hit. Take a look at th UK's data during this period

So the thing hit, then took a breather, then hit big. Keep your guard up.

No comments: