Friday, October 16, 2009

Thanks to Dorcas Daddy for a great post

 Go over and read this at the original site


And what be goldbugs culpability? They resemble anarchists: strongly motivated to be on the vanguard for a variety reasons, but ultimately selfish and probably mistaken for apocalyptic systemic implosion remains a tail event. In this view , gold remains "a trade", and not an end to itself. More irksome, a bet on Gold may be "right", but it - betting as it does upon the acceleration of pus manufacture, feels (to me) somehow uncivic-minded - a wasteful employment of intellectual energy that might be set upon making what is systemically and socially un-well, better.

Exactly right. Put another way, if you are bullish on gold, you are bearish on America, civilization, and the fate of those around you who keep their money in the bank. It's not a hedge against inflation--it's a bet on the inevitability of failure.

In craps, the casino dice game, there are two main bets available to you. You can bet the "Pass" line, meaning that you are hoping the person rolling the dice wins. Or, you can bet "Don't Pass," betting that the shooter will lose.

The odds on a "Pass" bet are 1.414% against you. The odds are 1.402% on the "Don't Pass."

Mathematically-minded players occasionally bet "Don't Pass," due to the slightly lower house edge, but in a real casino, you will quickly be shunned, taunted, bad vibed, and possibly get punched in the face.

Getting punched is a low probability event, but not low enough to justify (to me) the .012% edge you gain by betting "Don't Pass." Also, it's like a 95% chance everyone else you are gambling with will think you are an asshole.

Gold is the same deal. Even if you are right, you are an asshole---and the slim protection you get probably doesn't overcome the negative expectation that someone will punch you in the face.

3 comments:

Mayberry said...

At this stage of the game, I believe failure is inevitable. Let's use this analogy:

A crackhead has been given a $500,000 credit card limit. that's what is going on right now in our economy and government. The utter irresponsibility is staggering! But the "crack heads" will take their booty and run, leaving you, me, and everyone else to foot the bill. It's absolutely ludicrous! Not to mention completely unsustainable, much as is the required consumerism that maintains the Ponzi scheme.

I cannot fault someone who has worked hard, accumulated wealth, and desires to protect it. It's human nature. Were I wealthy, I'd be doing the same thing! In essence, I am doing the same thing by prepping. I prep for purely "selfish" reasons, to ensure my continued existence, and that of my family. In the end, that is what is important. Survival. It's instinct, every living thing wants to survive, and does everything in it's power to do so. Is that wrong? No. That's life....

Publius said...

Sorry, I don't buy this line of argument, at all.
When most nations were on a gold standard, socially useful business got done... in some ways, better.

The currency a system uses is in some sense arbitrary. Commodity-based currencies, however, have the merit of disallowing massive fraud and government printing or "quantitative easing."
No, I don't buy this post, at all.
Gold bugs are simply intuiting the inevitable bust of all fiat currencies. It is the governments that mandate and issue them that are anti-social psychopaths, not the gold bugs.
There is too much emphasis on sophism like this, which is used simply to shame the prudent into supporting the ponzi schemes a little longer, so the asshole wealthy can get out.
I am pretty sure you are smarter than this one. And you didn't write, which gives me hope.

Dorcas' Daddy said...

:)