An increasingly infrequent delve into the creaky mental workings of a cynical old man
Depends on how broadly you define "Major Western". If you go with all the "old NATO" + France countries, probably pretty low.They don't have a culture for it, and most of the military leadership is old. Modern revolutions tend to come the dispossessed educated youth.So major social unrest is far more likely than a military coup.If it does occur, it will most likely be because of the election of one of the fringe candidates that seem to be popular with the voters at the moment. But even then, there will be considerable wait-and-see before anything happens. Thus, more than a year from now.
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