I think that we will need to begin to discuss how we foresee things will play out at the varying levels of material civilization.
Obviously around the beans, bullets, and bandaid crowd the view is different than the yuppie preppers in their gated communities, but what will be the pro’s and the cons for each type of prepper will be different. There are too many of us for all to consider the “back to the country movement. We will have to make a myriad of accommodations to the new realities that we are facing.
I doubt that NY will turn into the penal colony described by escape from New York anytime soon, but there may be a good solid chance that it will return to the seediness and decrepitude of the 70’s. Hell, they will probably be that much the cooler for it. NY has a tendency of making whatever it is cool. Read the new post over at ClubOrlov for an idea of what could very well be the New York response. Los Angeles is well and truly fucked, but then, who cares. Chicago will come out of it best, they still serve a useful purpose as a major entrepôt for the agriculture and manufacturing capacity of the midwest. The other really big cities are more marginal. Atlanta will rule the south and the big cities of Tejas will duke it out.
These are the Seattles and Nashvilles and Salt Lake Cities of the country. These are the ones I wouldn’t want to be caught in come the day. They are just big enough to carry all the problems of the big cities but without the power to dominate the catchment areas they will need to survive.
Small Cities (100,000 to 200,000)
It is my belief that these areas will serve as the drivers of where we are going. The are big enough to provide a active and diverse set of specialties to provide for employment and revenue but small enough to have a decent chance at providing for public safety. I really believe that these will be the resilient communities described by John Robb over at Global Guerillas.
Towns (25,000 to 100,000)
These here will be prey. Not big enough to go solo, just big enough to make a tasty target for governmental and non-governmental predators. Usually no significant or single-industry payrolls. Usually greedy and corrupt local officials. Good luck here.
Small Towns (2,000 to 25,000)
These might be OK….They are few and far between and usually remote. They are usually well populated by folks who really don’t mind shooting back. They didn’t move there to get rich, they are usually a good assortment of “just folk”. Might be the spot.
I am leery of this one. Isolation makes for easy prey. Unless you are seriously remote, this may very well turn out to be a bad place to be. You have to sleep sometime. Depends.