Friday, January 1, 2010

Since Predictions are fashionable

2010....well maybe things will get better, the "oughts" have been bait and switch.  

  1. Stock market will stay the same for a bit then start moving down, lets call it an S&P of around 800.
  2. Residential prices are going to head south to the tune of around 15%
  3. Banks will continue to head south....maybe 175 this year.
  4. The health care plan will not be quite as terrible as we thought.  It still won't be good, but it won't last either. 
  5. Rolling over our 4.5 trillion we need in new and old bonds will go quite badly.  Debt service will increase.  Government programs will lose.
  6. California won't get bailed out this year, more states will follow her down the toilet.
  7. Republicans will take the 60-member majority away from the dems.  But rest assured they will begin fucking up as soon as they walk through the door.
  8. Mexico will get a lot worse.  Bad time to live close to the border.
  9. EU monetary Union will start to go under
  10. In other words, all the big issues that are going on now will continue heading south.  We are in no way near the end of the party.  


Anonymous said...

9. EU monetary Union will start to go under.

Why? Please explain that one for me.

Degringolade said...

The way that I see it, Europe is a marriage of convenience between countries with more dissent than common views. When you look at the enlargement in the last several years and the disparity between rich and poor, you have a union just waiting to go bad.

Oh, don't get me wrong, the dissolution won't happen this year, but the fraying of the seams will become quite visible. I am going to be watching Greece, Portugal, and the UK for the first real symptoms.

I didn't mention this, but the US will also begin it's crack up, but the process will be slower and much less obvious. Here one should watch the western coastal states for clues.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for your quick reply. I agree that the EU is the only game in town for most European countries.

I'm worried that the Euro will crash about five minutes after the dollar is dumped by China.

I live in Germany and as far as I can tell most Germans approve the European Union.It seems to me they have no other choice,they must stick with the Euro.

Have a good 2010,it will be interesting!