Whoda thunk it

Read This First

Appears that my guess of the UK remain was a little off.  Actually, it was just a little off.  Winning 51.9 to 48.1 kinda sucks, because what does one do to the guy next to you who still doesn't agree with you just because you won a popularity contest.

I hope that the Brits prove that they can fashion something that works.  Staying in the EU was a "Damned if you do, damned if you don't" proposition.  Unfortunately, at the end of the celebration by the winners, you are still damned.

The world is drifting towards a series of predicaments to live through.  The Brits just figured that the would rather be poorer than to be a colony of the Germans/EU like Greece.  That didn't go well either.  I think that the right decision was made.  I am not certain that congratulations are in order though.

Good luck cousins.

The Worship of the Child

This one is an odd one.

A thought came to me during last night's "old man run" to the bathroom.  It is 02:00 and quiet and the world just doesn't look all that bad.

Let's consider the abhorrence of abortion in any way shape or form.

I really think that our society's real faith is best exemplified by the abortion argument (let's not grace it with the word "debate") because at base, it reflects our self-worship at a fundamental level. 

The "abortionists" find no ethical challenge in taking a human life to make another human life better.  Theirs is the religion of Moloch, where sacrifice of the innocent is used to provide for the living.

The "baby worshippers" have some strange idea that every human embryo gestating in this country is sacred.

Both side pursue their goals with their version of sacred scripture.

But the idea of both is that the human is the be-all and end-all of existence.  That one of the three lives involved is infinitely more important than the other.  

Simply put, it is a crisis where there is no morality which can support the validity of either side of the abortion argument. Abortion is just another means of death.  All of us will pass through that gate.  

It is my feeling that fate does exist.  You can rage against the means, but the Norns don't look up from their weaving. 

Instrumentalism and Modern Science

AK Haart, a cherished curmudgeon from over in Pommyland, who is one of ten blogs on my reading list,  was discussing his disdain for the current state of science in Climatology.   He discussed the poor relationship between predictions made and results gathered.

Now this is refreshing.

From Wikipedia.

In the philosophy of science, instrumentalism is the view that a scientific theory is a useful instrument in understanding the world. A concept or theory should be evaluated by how effectively it explains and predicts phenomena, as opposed to how accurately it describes objective reality. 

Instrumentalism avoids the debate between anti-realism and philosophical or scientific realism. It may be better characterized as non-realism. Instrumentalism shifts the basis of evaluation away from whether or not phenomena observed actually exist, and towards an analysis of whether the results and evaluation fit with observed phenomena.

Having been a working scientist for around 25 years (before my current employment as a low-level government functionary), I can tell you that this attitude is about as welcome in a scientific research establishment as a fart at the prom.

Over the past century to ideal of science has shifted from the understanding of the world to the creation of devices/services.  Pure science is loaded into cosmology (which is rapidly becoming an exercise in furious handwaving) and computer models of climatology (which appear to be suffering the same fate.).
There have been quite a few articles lately concerning the state of research in any number of fields.  Just to keep my few readers amused and off of a barstool, I present the following:

A brutal takedown of a Psych study

When an Economist can cast stones at other field

An oldie but a goodie

Science has been our priesthood for my lifetime and more.   But I think that we are going through a phase somewhat analogous to the Medici popes.  It will be interesting to watch this reformation.

Perfidious (more accurately smart) Albion

I was fascinated when the folks up in Scotland tried to free themselves from the tyranny of Westminster.  It really didn't matter to me one way or the other, but the fact that so many people voted to hit the road was fascinating and encouraging.

Britain is in decline.  No two ways around that uncomfortable and irritating little fact.  Their industries are gutted, their national identity is in question, and they are making what appears to me to be sensible noises in leaving a bad deal before the French and the Germans suck them into being on the wrong end of the wealth pump.

But the barbaric murder of an MP has put the question into question.  A week ago there was a pretty strong trend towards getting gone from Brussels.  Now that trend seems to have reversed itself and I would venture a guess that the vote will go toward staying.

Look, I don't have a dog in this fight.  My family was transported, free of charge, to an entry level position on a North Carolina plantation, courtesy of one of  James II's magistrates (Grampa was apparently one of the low-level henchmen in Pride's Purge, so once the Royalty returned, there was some discomfort leaving the progeny of such types lying about on the island).

But the thing that I would like to discuss is the way that rational thought is hijacked and subverted during the electoral process.   Folks don't seem to connect things very well.  It seems like the MP who was killed was a sweet lady who tried her best.  Two lovely children, happy family.  Truth be told, she appears to be of the best sort that England has to offer.  Despite all the noise to the contrary, it appears that she attempted to do right and worked tirelessly to do so.

Now the flow is against Brexit.  I would posit a guess that Brexit will narrowly fail.  This will because people vote in terms of emotions and symbols, not self interest of rational thought.  (If you doubt this, please do me the courtesy of examining this US presidential election).  So when Mrs. Cox was murdered, people made her a powerful symbol.  The government didn't do this, it is a normal and understandable way of dealing with grief and shock.

Her symbol is a powerful aid the the "Remain" campaign.  Sympathy for the late Mrs. Cox will make the undecided and wishy-washy tend, as a group, to come down on the side of remain out of respect for a fine woman.  I have a feeling this will be enough to keep Great Britain in the EU for the time being.

The deciding votes for this campaign will not be cast by people who have thought the problem through and are making the best choice in light of the options presented.  They will be voting for the visceral and powerful need to support a  symbol.

I am not ashamed

19 eggs, the pickling sauce is leftover pickle juice from a big bottle of dill pickles

The happy hour of the proletariat, pickled eggs and Pabst Blue Ribbon

Hillary and the Ay-Rabs

Interesting little piece the other day.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-13/saudi-arabia-has-funded-20-hillarys-presidential-campaign-saudi-crown-prince-claims

http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/deleted-official-report-says-saudi-key-funder-hillary-clinton-presidential-campaign-223282807

Hillary is a mess.  She has used her office and her husband's former office to fund her lifestyle and feed her desperate need for attention.  She is the evil candidate from the Stupid Party (Donald is the Stupid candidate from the Evil Party...please try to keep these straight).  I think that more and more of these kind of "revelations" will be coming out in the next five months.  Most folks won't pay any attention. Such is life.

The latest to this is that the Saudi's  and the Petra were "hacked".  So, there is a chance that this isn't true.  But why is it that even if you try to give her the benefit of the doubt, the accusations still ring true?

If she is elected, her administration will be crippled from the start.  There is so much going on in the way of sleaze in her actions at the State Department and the Clinton Foundation that there will be a constant defensive stance to her administration.  The partisanship and gridlock will continue, because, the best that I can tell, Hillary is as well-liked as Ted Cruz ever was and there is too much ammunition available from a lifetime of her and her husband's sleaze to attack her with.

I am truthfully embarrassed by the Punch and Judy show that this election has turned into.

BTW:  Donald Trump is a asshole too.

A pox on them all.

Low Impact, Low Cost, Low Capital Beer

Items that I put together for the first attempt at low-impact beer

OK:

This is the first effort at trying to figure out the antithesis of the current zeitgeist of the current American home brewing hobbyhorses.

For the most part, American hobbyists view their weird little perversions as a dick matching contest, with hurried and frequent trips to the local homebrewing store of the internet to purchase, at often ruinous expense, the latest geegaw that will prove to their peers that their equipment can beat anyone else's equipment at brewing beer.  It is somewhat akin to "Fishermen" who, when they add in the cost of their boat and tackle and sundry probably spend $55.00 an pound for the fish they catch.

Beer was created by the Sumerians.  2050 BCE was quite a while ago.  All the technical commercial crap is not necessary to the task.

Alulu beer receipt – This records a purchase of "best" beer from a brewer, c. 2050 BC from the Sumerian city of Umma in ancient Iraq.^[1]

So, I am proceeding in the opposite direction.  For this first little effort, I am going to attempt a small batch of beer (1.5 to 2 gallons)<2 a="" and="" apartment.="" dinky="" fits="" gallons="" in="" into="" it="" little="" make="" my="" p="" system="" that="" to="" try="">

Hardware:

1. Stainless steel 2.5 gallon pot with lid, steamer insert and draining thingamajig
2. 1 quart pyrex measuring cup
3. balance
4. big nylon straining bag for the grain
5. small muslin bags for the hops
6. thermometer
7. Some siphon tubing and a hose clamp
8. Fermenting bucket 
9. Air lock

Ingredients

1.   3.25 pounds 2-row barley @ $1.09/lb ($3.54) 
2.  0.25 pounds of Crystal 80 @ $1.69/lb ($0.43)
3.  0.25 pounds of Chocolate Malt @ 1.99 ($0.50)
4.  0.25 pounds of Chocolate Wheat @ 1.69 ($0.43)
5.  1 ounce Summit hops ($2.50)
6.  11.5 grams Safbrew Abbaye yeast ($5.99)

Mashing

OK:  there are a lot of resources out there for helping you work out the details.  For this little project, I used these folks:

http://www.brewersfriend.com/mash/

First step is to put the nylon sack into the pot and put in five quarts of water and stick it on the burner. 

Keep the thermometer close at hand and watch the temperature, when it gets to 169-170 F. (76-77 C.)

Full Stop:  First rule....do not buy a cheap thermometer....

First crack a failure...The temperature was actually around 200 instead of the 170, the grains are ruined, the enzymes dead.  Tomorrow is another purchase of grain and a decent thermometer.

Back to Work:

To Be continued

Yoga Capitalism Ramble

Hipsters Got It:

The capitalism and consumerism that is practiced in this country really is becoming a self-referential bit of a mess.  What is being sold and produced, here and abroad, for the masses in America is derived nearly solely of status symbols and affectations.  That is the nature of American Capitalism.

The stupid expensive cars. The $100 yoga pants.  Iphones and Ipads.  McMansions.

All of these things just don't matter to a life well led.  What they are is a way of flouting one's self-perceived superiority and "success".  The life that folks are leading is a series of purchases required to cobble together a "lifestyle" in order to establish an identity.

Really think about that last sentence.  I especially want to you to dwell on the word that defines our society today.  Lifestyle.  The two roots are obvious enough that I won't belabor them.

Style is the interesting word.  There are a whole series of definitions to this monosyllable (though out here in Orygun the word tends toward disyllabic).  We have a society whose sole purpose seems to be the generation of and maintenance of the surface and the ephemeral.  Education is not about advancing your knowledge, it is about getting sufficient training to allow a future employer to offer you a job.  Government is based on spin.  Taxpayer revolts are about starving the commons for the sake of the self.

Nearly all of our "culture" is cartoonish.  Super-heroes and super-cops fight out in morality plays.

Even our religion is tainted.  Super churches spout a creed of capitalism that would make their erstwhile savior rush into the temple to drive out the money changers.  Christian tenets such as voluntary poverty and human brotherhood are traded for the latest fashion, a new 4x4 pickup and a hatred of the other.

Our lives have become a fulfillment of the ruling class'  wishes for us.  We are now consumers.  I think that it is time that we woke up to it and stopped feeding the machine.  I am trying.  Wish me luck.

1976

You know, it was kind of a crappy year.

Vietnam had finished and the military was in limbo, crying like a whipped dog.  The economy was crap, the first oil crunch had taken a big bite out of the country.  The internet did not exist, ARPANET was not quite a year old and both Microsoft and Apple came into being.

The environment was an issue, Rachel Carson was still being read and mourned,  Paul Ehrlich was being roundly vilified for speaking the truth.  The climate had just made its first big move (the 1976 Shift) and the data was so new no one even noticed.  We had a caretaker President who handed the reins to a good man who tried to change things and who everyone despised for not telling them that they were special.  He appealed to the better angels of our nature and lost four years later to a man and culture that knew we didn't possess anything of the sort.

Our society was still flailing around after the silliness of the late sixties and early seventies.  The yuppies had not been born yet, you just had a bunch of 20-somethings with college degrees who had started the transition from budding hippies to yuppies with a mission to strip mine the country for everything that it was worth in order to feed their own cupidity.

History Rhymes

Our vaunted military is getting to be more and more broken.  Long wars do that to you.  The oil crunch this time is a different flavor, but still a symptom of the same problems.  The internet is now ubiquitous and its utility growing more suspect.  Microsoft and Apple are behemoths astride the landscape, but they are showing their age and their sclerosis.

The environment is worse now, having been ignored for forty some odd years.  We have a caretaker president who maintained the looting begun by Reagan and that continued through both Bushes and a Clinton.

But it will be a little different this time.  Unless something radical happens, whichever of the two idiots we elect will be a one-term wonder.  I think that there is a solid chance that neither of them will get all the way through one term, whether the cause be impeachment, violence, or indictment.  When both major party candidates have an unfavorable metric of greater than 50%, I think that we had better keep our expectations quite low.

So we are looking at the arc of history from the other end of where we were in 1976.  Part of me thinks that we are reaping our just rewards, but then I look at my sons and realize that they will be reaping what we sowed.

Plan of Action

The Best that Google Can Do

It would appear that I have been enjoying writing this little affectation lately.    The damn thing has been in existence since May of 2005.  Pageviews are at 113,486.  It would appear that my best month was back in June 2013 where I garnered >6,300 pageviews in a month.  The best post was "Aisles" with >3,600 page views.

But I have to figure out how best to keep doing this for the next long while.  I have 1,269 posts in here.  I figure that around 100 of them are keepers.  The rest is fill, done to keep my mental constipation at bay.

So here is what I figure.  No more weekend posts, I will use the early time on Saturday and Sunday to lay down foundations and ideas.  And get them roughed out.  Then during the week as I write in the morning, I will flesh out the piece and publish.

That is my plan.  See you in the funny papers.

Friday Shorts

I am breaking into a new habit of writing.

I think that any one who exhibits the lack of time management skills needed to routinely drop by and visit this blog had best not have much in the way of expectations for the Friday post.

This old man is still working for a living, and the days of Friday being the day of partying and fun are gone, gone, gone.  Friday is just scraping by and getting home to rest.

So my screed-generation engine will not be up to the marginal standards that the rest of the site exhibits by the time Friday rolls around.

I do not apologize

Sign of the Times

“The old is dying and the new is struggling to be born; in the interim a great variety of morbid symptoms occur.”
                                     –Antonio Gramsci.

So:  First thing.  Take a look at this:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-08/draghi-seen-buying-junk-debt-shows-ecb-will-do-whatever-it-takes

So, now the European Central bank is so consumed by maintaining the status quo of theives and liars that they are now willing to buy junk bonds to support the market and the zombie companies.  And the rest of us are to believe that things are going along well.

This is more and more feeling like 2007.  The big money is making certain that governments and the taxpayer are on the hook for the excesses of the greedy.  Goldman-Sachs alumni still do everything necessary to ensure that their ancestral breeding ground is defended.

Nothing has been done to address the issues that collapsed the economy last time.  Truth be told, I am not certain that, even if sensible and honest policies are enacted, the economy will not tank anyway. The rot is deep.

I don't approve of or advocate the proposed solutions to this age old problem that is espoused by the Marxists, but boy-o-boy do the Marxists have an excellent description of the problem.

Capital is doing it's level best to monopolize the means of production.  Automation, offshoring, and immigration grease the skids for this power grab.

The Bourgeoisie is acting as it has always acted.  Sneering quislings who feel that their privilege and their station allow them access to treats that define their superiority.

The Proletariat is getting screwed, getting marginalized, and getting angry.

This game has played out before.  The genius of FDR is that he managed to deflect the storm.

I can't imagine anyone in the current political having the guts to do what is needed.

The best hope that we have is Donald Trump (remember, FDR was a rich fucker just like Donald)

And that my friends, is one itsy-bitsy tiny ray of hope.

Well......

Now lets talk about the economy and it's effect on the political stage and vice-versa.

The votes are in, and it would appear that the "people" have chosen the path continuing the current trajectory.  Trump is a dissident oligarch, Clinton is a bought and paid for henchman of the oligarchs.

So we will continue down the path we are treading.

Now, what should we expect next?  I have a nasty suspicion that, considering the provenance of the two candidates, we will continue to feed the 1% at the expense of the rest of the country.

I would posit that we will begin seeing laws encouraging money coming into the US and complimentary laws discouraging the exit of the same.  I will venture a guess that the rich folks will have to repatriate their offshore money and pay some taxes, but the legislation that requires the money to come back on shore will be watered down to allow a lower overall tax rate for the "richers".

The welfare folks will be whipped, because there is nothing more enjoyable for this country's top 80% than to spit on and sneer at the bottom 20%.  But I think that the bottom 20% will be expanded to the bottom 30%.

The working class is going to take it in the shorts regardless.  The "computer productivity", offshoring, automation, and illegal aliens will continue to erode the working class, the bottom edge of the working class will become the top edge of the welfare class.

The professionals will begin to feel the bite too.  This class will drop from it's 20% to 15% and become even more of a hereditary system.  The education required for this class will become increasingly throttled and reserved for the scions of this order.

The rich will get richer.

That will be the outcome of the coming election.  The mechanism is being wound tighter.  Now we will see how long before it breaks.  Things won't happen quickly, we got some years yet, but it doesn't appear that anything will arrest the trajectory of things to come.