Sunday, November 22, 2009

Please Go Look at This

Please read this first

Then go here.
Please research yourself.  Don't stop at these two, try to come to grips with the complexity of the data.

Please don't try and cherry pick.  Don't just read a bunch of flap on websites that you already agree with. 

Please don't judge instantly according to your current prejudices, but rather, use the data here as a means of judging what is happening.  What is happening is not straightforward nor is it amenable to simple solutions.

Global Warming is not a hoax, it not the truth either.

Staying the same is not a hoax, it not the truth either.

Global cooling is not a hoax, it not the truth either.

The long term solar minimum currently is a data point, not a pointer to the future.

We really don't know what is going on, we only have the ability to look at all the facts available and draw the best possible theory, which has an unfortunate tendency of being proved wrong at the next data collection.

Think for yourself, forget the shrill raving of folks with axes to grind and firmly held convictions.  The subject being discussed is complex, the data given is difficult to encompass, and there is no way to make an easy judgement.  It is a difficult subject with hard to understand physics involved.

There has always been scandals in science.  There will also be times where scientists use language and methods not appropriate to the temple of science.  Even if there has been fudged data at one center, the other centers are still there for cross checking.

Be careful.

1 comment:

Gather ye marbles said...

Trusty old words about confirmation bias: "The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion (either as being the received opinion or as being agreeable to itself) draws all things else to support and agree with it. And though there be a greater number and weight of instances to be found on the other side, yet these it either neglects and despises, or else by some distinction sets aside and rejects; in order that by this great and pernicious predetermination the authority of its former conclusions may remain inviolate. [...] [S]uch is the way of all superstition, whether in astrology, dreams, omens, divine judgments, or the like; wherein men, having a delight in such vanities, mark the events where they are fulfilled, but where they fail, though this happen much oftener, neglect and pass them by. But with far more subtlety does this mischief insinuate itself into philosophy and the sciences; in which the first conclusion colours and brings into conformity with itself all that come after, though far sounder and better." --Francis Bacon: The New Organon, 1620.